U. S. Energy Policy and Economic Growth, 1975-2000

This paper presents a new approach to the quantitative analysis of U.S. energy policy, based on an integration of econometric modeling and input-output analysis. It incorporates a new methodology for assessing the impact of economic policy on both demand and supply for energy within a complete econometric model of the U.S. economy. The model consists of production models for nine industrial sectors, a model of consumer demand, and a macro-econometric growth model for the U.S. economy. The model is first used to project economic activity and energy utilization for the period 1975 to 2000 under the assumption of no change in energy policy. The model is then employed to design a tax program for stimulating energy conservation and reducing dependence on imported sources of energy. The overall conclusion of the analysis of tax policy is that substantial reductions in energy use can be achieved without economic cost.