Understanding changing patterns of placement type stability in the first two years of placement for looked after children in Scotland: A sequence analysis

• Sequence analysis can be used to describe overall trends in looked after children’s care placement type stability. • Overall placement type instability in the first two years in care increased slightly in Scotland between 2008 and 2017. • When changes in the mix of placement type clusters are controlled for, there was no evidence of overall change in placement type stability. Placement stability is an important concern for children looked after. Sequence analysis has been proposed as a promising method by which to quantitatively assess care placement stability for looked after children. Previous uses of sequence analysis to understand care placement stability have focused on a cohort perspective – following children from birth to age 18 and then analysing their whole care histories. This cohort approach is less well suited to understanding care placement stability for the population of children in care at a given time, which is a limitation given interest in understanding how aggregate levels of care placement stability is changing. In this paper we demonstrate a complimentary use of sequence analysis to understand placement type stability in shorter periods. We combined sequence analysis with regression modelling applied to Scottish administrative data for children looked after between 2008–2017 to describe change over time in the average number of transitions between placement types – a placement stability measure derived from sequence analysis – for children in their first two years in care. Our results show that there was a slight overall decrease in placement stability by this measure between 2008–2017, but that this decrease appears attributable to changes in the composition of placement types over the same period.