Smoking Cessation, Weight Gain, and the Trajectory of Estimated Risk of Coronary Heart Disease: 8-Year Follow-up From a Prospective Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION: The effect of weight gain following smoking cessation on cardiovascular risks is unclear. We aimed to prospectively investigate the association of weight gain following smoking cessation with the trajectory of estimated risks of coronary heart disease (CHD). METHODS: In a cohort of 18 562 Japanese male employees aged 30-64 years and initially free of cardiovascular diseases, participants were exclusively grouped into sustained smokers, quitters with weight gain (body weight increase ≥5%), quitters without weight gain (body weight increase <5% or weight loss), and never smokers. Global 10-year CHD risk was annually estimated by using a well-validated prediction model for the Japanese population. Linear mixed models and piecewise linear mixed models were used to compare changes in the estimated 10-year CHD risk by smoking status and weight change following smoking cessation. RESULTS: During a maximum of 8-year follow-up, both quitters with and without weight gain had a substantially decreased level of estimated 10-year CHD risk after quitting smoking, compared with sustained smokers (all ps for mean differences < .001). The estimated 10-year CHD risk within the first year after cessation decreased more rapidly in quitters without weight gain than in quitters with weight gain (change rate [95% confidence interval, CI] -0.90 [-1.04 to -0.75] vs. -0.40 [-0.60 to -0.19] % per year, p < .0001). Thereafter, the estimated 10-year CHD risk in both groups increased at similar rates (change rate [95% CI] -0.07 [-0.21 to 0.07] vs. 0.11 [-0.09 to 0.30] % per year, p = .16, from year 1 to year 2; and 0.10 [0.05 to 0.15] vs. 0.11 [0.04 to 0.18] % per year, p = .80, from year 2 to year 8). CONCLUSIONS: In this population of middle-aged, Japanese male workers, smoking cessation greatly reduces the estimated 10-year risk of CHD. However, weight gain weakens the beneficial effect of quitting smoking in a temporary and limited fashion. IMPLICATIONS: To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the effect of weight gain following smoking cessation on the trajectory of the absolute risk of CHD. Our data imply that the benefits of cessation for reducing the absolute risk of CHD outweigh the potential risk increase due to weight gain, and suggest that in order to maximize the beneficial effects of quitting smoking, interventions to control post-cessation weight gain might be warranted.