Local conditions matter: Climate change and coffee production in Brazil

Abstract Coffee is a key commodity in the agricultural portfolio of many emerging countries and is consumed worldwide with growing demand. Despite coffee’s economic importance, the impacts of climate change on the production of coffee have been studied much less extensively than for the major annual crops. In this study we analyze the impacts of climate on coffee production in Brazil, the world’s largest producer, using a panel econometric model encompassing 2,048 Brazilian municipalities for the 39-year period from 1980 - 2018. Our study analyzes the impacts of key temperature and precipitation variables across the distinct stages of coffee production—blooming, berry ripening, harvesting, and dormancy. Estimation results show that warm temperatures measured by Growing Degree Days positively affect yields during the blooming stage, while extreme heat measured by Harmful Degree Days reduces yields. Rainfall improves yields in the blooming and ripening stages, but harms yields during the harvest period. Dry spells during the dormant period improve yields up to a threshold, but prolonged drought conditions adversely impact yields. We integrated our econometric results with the IPCC “middle-of-the-road” shared socioeconomic pathway, SSP2, with moderate levels of greenhouse gas emissions, sub-scenario 4.5, and the CNRM-CM6-1 Global Climate Model to project climate impacts for Brazil’s major Arabica coffee-producing states for the second half of the century. Results show that overall yields in Brazil are expected to decline in the second half of the century due to the effects of climate by about 8% relative to a 2009–18 baseline, but impacts across Brazilian states are heterogeneous with yield expected to decline in the leading state, Minas Gerais, by 13%, but increase by 19% in Mato Grosso do Sul, to date a relatively minor producer. For products grown in regions with heterogeneous topography such as coffee, our study reveals great variation in the yield impacts of climate change and the need to tailor adaptation policies to the specific conditions in local growing areas.