Care management and determinants of day 14 mortality in severely ill children aged under 5 years subsequent to hypoxaemia diagnosed using routine pulse oximetry in primary care: evidence from the AIRE project

BACKGROUND: The Amélioration de l'Identification des détresses Respiratoires de l'Enfant (AIRE) project introduced the routine use of pulse oximetry (PO) into Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) consultations within primary health centres (PHCs) in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali and Niger. We analysed how severe cases were managed and 14-day mortality by hypoxaemia severity. METHODS: <90%) were eligible for referral and enrolled in a 14-day prospective cohort with parental consent. Referral decisions, admissions, access to oxygen therapy and Kaplan-Meier probability of death were compared by hypoxaemia severity. An adjusted mixed-effects Cox regression model with a random effect for PHC estimated adjusted ORs (aORs) and 95% CIs of mortality by day 14. RESULTS: From July 2021 to July 2022, 1998 severe cases were enrolled, including 10.6% aged <2 months; 7.1% had severe hypoxaemia, and 10.5% had moderate hypoxaemia (90%≤oxygen saturation≤93%). By day 14, 625 (31.3%) were referred, 463 (23.2%) hospitalised, and 95 children (4.8%) had died. Referral decisions, hospitalisations and oxygen therapy rates were significantly higher for severe hypoxaemic cases (83.8%, 82.3% and 34.5%, respectively) than for moderate hypoxaemic cases (32.7%, 26.5% and 7.1%, respectively) and cases without hypoxaemia (26.3%, 17.5% and 1.4%, respectively). Similarly, day 14 mortality rates were 26.1%, 7.5% and 2.3%, respectively. The aORs for mortality were severe hypoxaemia (9.34, 95% CI 5.08 to 17.16), moderate hypoxaemia (2.32, 95% CI 1.16 to 4.64), age <2 months (3.68, 95% CI 1.67 to 8.13), severe malaria (2.02, 95% CI 1.03 to 3.97) and living in Niger (4.06, 95% CI 1.41 to 11.67). CONCLUSION: Regardless of severity, hypoxaemia was common among outpatients screened using PO and meeting criteria for severity. Its presence was associated with mortality risk. Incorporating PO within IMCI prompted care management of severely hypoxaemic cases, but hospital referrals and access to oxygen remain sub-optimal and are crucial levers for reducing under-five mortality. STUDY REGISTRATION NUMBER: PACTR202206525204526 registered retrospectively on 15 June 2022.