Meta-Analytic Examination of the Base-Rate Fallacy

This paper is a meta-analytic review of the base-rate fallacy in persuasion research. The base-rate fallacy argues that individuals provided a set of statistical conclusions are unable to successfully utilize the statistical information when encountering contrary examples in a message. The meta-analysis provides empirical support for that claim. Results are discussed in the context of base-rate information versus an individuating narrative example. The potential consequences of these judgmental heuristics are applied to the assumptions and claims of the message sidedness/resistance to counterpersuasion literature.