Desired Number of Births and Prospects for Fertility Decline in 40 Countries

1 way of assessing the likelihood of fertility change has been to compare the total fertility rate (TFR) with average desired family size. However contrasting the TFR with a different measure--the wanted TFR (or number of children the average woman will have over her lifetime if she avoids unwanted births)--implies much greater prospects for fertility decline than does the comparison with desired family size. Both TFR and wanted TFR are calculated by projecting from birth histories for the preceding 24 months. Wanted TFR projects only the births wanted by the mother the reasoning being that if couples were persuaded to refrain from bearing undesired children wanted fertility would be lower than the figure given as total desired children since the latter tends to be rationalized upwards as family size increases. Parity analysis should confirm this. World Fertility Survey (WFS) data also suggest existence of large numbers of women who postpone their next birth indefinitely. In Costa Rica for example desired family size is 4.7 TFR is 3.5 and the wanted TFR is 2.6 and 66% of women who wanted additional children were practicing contraception. The observed inconsistencies between desire for last birth and desired family size for 20 WFS countries appears to indicate that desire for last birth is the most accurate measure. Factors that might affect wanted TFR are reductions in fecundity impairments prosperity changes in high contraceptive prevalence countries and breastfeeding decline. Applied to data from 40 countries projections for fertility decline in the presence of comprehensive family planning programs are especially good for the Americas Southeast Asia and the Pacific and slightly less promising for North Africa and West and Mid-Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa showed the least promise with possible increases due to decreased fecundity impairment and breastfeeding and decreases due to rapid development. Generally infant mortality is not as effective a social characteristic as previously assumed. Figures for wanted TFR should help to isolate situations where family planning promotional campaigns will be most effective.