Integrating financial sentiment analysis with coreference resolution: A comprehensive empirical framework

Financial sentiment analysis has emerged as a crucial tool for deciphering the complex narratives within financial markets. However, the accuracy of sentiment attribution to specific financial entities remains a significant challenge. This study introduces a novel framework that integrates state-of-the-art coreference resolution (CR) with a robust causal inference methodology—propensity score matching (PSM) and difference-in-differences (DID)—to precisely measure the impact of entity-specific sentiment. Coreference resolution is employed to accurately attribute sentiments to financial entities, significantly enhancing the precision of the sentiment signal. By leveraging a financial domain-adapted language model (FinBERT) and a comprehensive analytical framework, we demonstrate the causal impact of CR-enhanced sentiment on key financial metrics. To address the 'black-box' nature of predictive models, we further employ SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to interpret our Random Forest sentiment predictions, identifying the primary drivers of market sentiment. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of sentiment-market dynamics, revealing the nuanced, causal impact of sentiment on market behavior. The implications of this study extend beyond academic contributions, offering valuable, interpretable insights for investment strategies, risk management, and regulatory oversight. This research represents a significant step forward in applying advanced, data-driven, and interpretable techniques to financial decision-making.