When do refugees regret their decision to flee? The role of perceived forcedness, perils during migration and counterfactual thinking

Experiences of migration can elicit various emotions, including feelings of regret about leaving their country of origin. Building on theorizing about distinct features of refugeehood, we examined whether and how migration perils (hardship encountered before and during migration) and perceived forcedness influence regret among Arabic-speaking refugees (N = 388). To illuminate underlying psychological processes, we assessed counterfactual thinking (CFT). We found that regret was negatively associated with forcedness and with perils (before and during migration) but positively with post-arrival stressors. Downward CFT (things could have been worse if not having left one's country) was positively associated with migration perils and perceived forcedness but negatively with regret. Upward CFT (things could have been better), which increased with higher post-arrival stressors, was positively associated with regret. A moderated mediation analysis indicated that perceived forcedness attenuated the effect of perils on downward CFT and the indirect effect of perils via downward CFT on regret. This finding may indicate that, after arrival in the receiving society and under lower perceived forcedness, regret is reduced to the extent that past experiences of perils are justified through downward CFT; under high forcedness, however, these processes are triggered to a lesser extent. Our study offers insights into the cognitive-emotional processes underlying refugees’ responses to migration, while highlighting the role of ongoing stressors in post-migration adjustment.