Tracing the Path: Analyzing Trends in Grade 10 Mathematics Performance Over the Academic Year

Background and Aim: Mathematics learning is a dynamic process marked by conceptual complexity and variable performance over time. In the Philippine context, most studies rely on year-end summaries, overlooking how performance evolves throughout the academic year. This study traced quarterly trends in mathematics performance among 168 Grade 10 students from a public secondary school and examined how sex and section-based grouping influenced these trajectories. Materials and Methods: Using archival academic records, quarterly mathematics grades (Q1–Q4) were analyzed through repeated measures ANOVA and mixed-design models. Sex and academic section (homogeneously grouped by prior performance) were treated as between-subject factors. Statistical assumptions were tested, and Bonferroni-adjusted post hoc comparisons were performed to examine significant differences across time and subgroups. Results: Significant main effects were found for time (F (3, 495) = 57.50, p < .001), sex (F (1, 165) = 7.08, p = .009), and section (F (3, 159) = 90.00, p < .001), with additional interaction effects observed. Female students and those in higher-ranked sections consistently outperformed their peers. Performance trends were non-linear, featuring early gains, mid-year plateaus, and an eventual decline in the final quarter. Conclusion: These findings highlight the utility of sub-annual analysis in identifying critical shifts in student performance. By uncovering how sex and academic grouping shape performance trajectories, the study advocates for more responsive and equity-driven instructional strategies, particularly in underexamined educational settings such as the Philippines.