Falling Fertility in Vietnam

This study examines the evidence for a decline in fertility in Vietnam relies on Bongaarts proximate determinants of fertility and discusses the disparity between high fertility and high contraceptive use and abortion. Data were obtained from the 1992-93 Vietnam Living Standards Survey. Total fertility declined to 3.2 children/woman by 1993 from 5.6 in 1979. The rate of fertility decline in Vietnam was comparable to declines in Taiwan Singapore Hong Kong Malaysia and Thailand during periods of rapid demographic transition. Only China had a faster decline in fertility. Bongaarts estimates indicate that predicted total fertility was below the observed total fertility for 1989 and 1993. Predicted total fertility declined by 0.8 which was comparable to the actual decline in fertility. However the gap between observed and predicted fertility was large. When the Bongaarts model was adjusted for overestimation of contraceptive use the predicted total fertility figure of 3.3 in 1993 came very close to the actual value of 3.2 from the Living Standards Survey data. It is argued that the shift to a market-based economy did not reduce the pressure on parents to have smaller families. Desired family size values obtained from other surveys for 1993 and 1994 indicate that women desired about 2.3 to 2.8 children. It is expected that fertility will continue to decline. Declines will be attributed to more effective contraceptive use.