States and sovereignty in the Middle East: myths and realities

To many observers the Middle East states system since the Arab uprisings remains at a critical juncture. The uprisings, which started late in 2010, were revolutionary in their initial impact, but beyond Tunisia, it is the counterrevolutionary movement has proved more durable. 1 However, the region has witnessed multiple regime changes alongside intense levels of popular mobilisation, violence and transnational activism. The results have been highly destabilising, resulting in challenges to the very sovereignty and territorial integrity of states. This situation, in turn, has contributed to a shifting regional balance of power and repeated episodes of external intervention. Some commentators have argued that the whole regional system, always fragile and contested, is finally undergoing radical transformation; others point to its resilience. This article evaluates the latest wave of instability and its consequences for Middle Eastern states, their sovereignty and regional order, introducing themes and discussions taken up in other articles in this special issue. It argues -connecting directly to the Zartman article -that despite recent upheavals (and multiple predictions to the contrary), it is likely that the Middle East system of states and borders will remain largely intact -at least in the medium term. This does not mean that states are necessarily 'strong' in a Weberian sense or that sovereignty at different levels is uncontested, but that continuity -state (even regime) survival and border preservation -is likely to prevail over major change.