Institutional Practices and Challenges in Direct Evacuation to Welfare Shelters

This study examines how Japanese municipalities institutionally position direct evacuation to welfare shelters, focusing on human-centered decision-making under disaster conditions. A document survey of municipalities in Nankai Trough earthquake countermeasure areas identified three policy categories: explicitly permitted, conditionally permitted, and not permitted. A multinomial logit model revealed limited but statistically significant associations between municipal characteristics and policy positioning. Municipal area size was positively associated with explicit permission, while the number of residents requiring evacuation support was negatively associated with conditional permission. Overall, structural capacity alone does not fully explain institutional decisions. Interviews indicate that experiential factors, including disaster experience and administrative judgment, play critical roles.