Explainable AI-Driven Wildfire Prediction in Australia: SHAP and Feature Importance to Identify Environmental Drivers in the Age of Climate Change

This study develops an explainable machine learning framework for wildfire prediction across Australia, integrating region-specific models and feature attribution to identify key environmental drivers. Three wildfire indicators, Estimated Fire Area (FA), Mean Fire Brightness Temperature (FBT), and Fire Radiative Power (FRP), were modeled using Lasso, Random Forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost. Performance metrics (RMSEC, RMSECV, RMSEP) confirmed strong calibration and generalization, with Tasmania and Queensland achieving the lowest prediction errors for FA and FRP, respectively. Feature importance and SHAP analyses revealed that soil moisture, solar radiation, precipitation, and humidity variability are dominant predictors. Extremes and variance-based measures proved more influential than mean climatic values, indicating that fire dynamics respond non-linearly to environmental fluctuations. Lasso models captured stable linear dependencies in arid regions, while ensemble models effectively represented complex interactions in tropical climates. The results highlight a hierarchical process where cumulative soil and radiation stress establish fire potential, and short-term meteorological variability drives ignition and spread. Projected climate shifts, declining soil water and increased radiative load, are likely to intensify these drivers. The framework supports interpretable, region-specific mitigation planning and paves the way for incorporating generative AI and multi-source data fusion to enhance real-time wildfire forecasting.