Economic Conditions and Executive Popularity: The French Experience

There is a growing body of research which treats the effects of economic conditions on presidential popularity in the United States. For the French case, however, work on the question has yet to begin. I focus here on the impact of variations in unemployment and inflation on presidential popularity in France, as measured by monthly national surveys taken over the last two decades. According to my analysis, increasing unemployment and inflation result in significant and important reductions in the popularity of the French president. Further, when the model is applied to the prime minister, his approval appears even more damaged by these adverse economic conditions than that of the president.