An Introduction to Predictive Modeling for Disease Management Risk Stratification

Predictive modeling tools are used by disease management programs to risk-stratify members in order to optimize the utilization of available clinical resources. This paper provides an introduction to predictive modeling within the context of disease management by describing how predictive modeling tools can be used, how they work, and how modeling results should be evaluated. These topics will be described at a relatively general level to provide a basic understanding for non-statisticians.