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Abstract Variability of the thermohaline circulation (THC) has been analyzed in a long control simulation by the Met Office's Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Model (HadCM3). It is shown that internal THC variability in the coupled climate system is concentrated at interannual and centennial time scales, with the centennial mode being dominant. Centennial oscillations of the THC can impact surface climate via an interhemispheric SST contrast of 0.1°C in the Tropics and more than 0.5°C in mid- and high latitudes. A mechanism is proposed based on detailed process analysis involving large-scale air–sea interaction on multidecadal time scales. Anomalous northward ocean heat transport associated with a strong phase of the Atlantic THC generates a cross-equatorial SST gradient. This causes the ITCZ to move to a more northerly position with increased strength. The extra rainfall resulting from the anomalous ITCZ imposes a freshwater flux and produces a salinity anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic. Such sustained salinity anomalies slowly propagate toward the subpolar North Atlantic at a lag of 5–6 decades. The accumulated low-salinity water lowers upper-ocean density, which causes the THC to slow down. The oscillation then enters the opposite phase.
Vellinga et al. (Wed,) studied this question.