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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a triangular grey-fuzzy earned duration analysis (TGF-EDA) to evaluate and predict project time performance under uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach This study reviewed related literature to determine the research gap. Then, TGF-EDA algorithms were developed by integrating grey system theory (GST), fuzzy set theory (FST) and EDA. Also, an interpretation scheme for the time analysis results was developed. Then, TGF-EDA was validated using a numerical comparison. A case study on a road project was piloted to demonstrate the application of the proposed model. Findings Unlike the previous analytical models: deterministic, probabilistic, fuzzy and grey, TGF-EDA determines all the important parameters, including the lower, median and upper bounds of the predicted time, along with the degree of greyness, employing a five-point interval scale. This proposed model addresses the limitations of the previous models. Practical implications The proposed model helps to analyze project time performance. It provides an early warning of activity or project time overrun. Using this analytical model, project managers can monitor project time performance. The analysis result interpretation recommends that the project managers identify the causes and take corrective measures if the project incurs a time overrun or is nearing a time overrun. Originality/value No study combined GST, FST and EDA simultaneously, so this study aims to propose TGF-EDA for evaluation and prediction of project time performance under uncertainty.
Desse et al. (Tue,) studied this question.