Demographic and practice factors predicting repeated non-attendance in primary care: a national retrospective cohort analysis

BACKGROUND: Addressing the causes of low engagement in health care is a prerequisite for reducing health inequalities. People who miss multiple appointments are an under-researched group who might have substantial unmet health needs. Individual-level patterns of missed general practice appointments might thus provide a risk marker for vulnerability and poor health outcomes. We sought to ascertain the contributions of patient and practice factors to the likelihood of missing general practice appointments. METHODS: For this national retrospective cohort analysis, we extracted UK National Health Service general practice data that were routinely collected across Scotland between Sept 5, 2013, and Sept 5, 2016. We calculated the per-patient number of missed appointments from individual appointments and investigated the risk of missing a general practice appointment using a negative binomial model offset by number of appointments made. We then analysed the effect of patient-level factors (including age, sex, and socioeconomic status) and practice-level factors (including appointment availability and geographical location) on the risk of missing appointments. FINDINGS: =0·63). INTERPRETATION: The findings that both patient and practice characteristics contribute to non-attendance of general practice appointments raise important questions for both the management of patients who miss multiple appointments and the effectiveness of existing strategies that aim to increase attendance. Addressing these issues should lead to improvements in provision of services and public health. FUNDING: Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office and Data Sharing and Linkage Service of the Scottish Government.