Key result
Polio modeling groups double between 2020 and 2024, yet their impact on policy decisions declines.
Why the study?
To complement an earlier review covering 2000-2019 and assess the evolution of poliovirus transmission and economic modeling studies published since 2020.
Systematic Review (n=102)
The review highlights the increasing volume and complexity of poliovirus modeling studies between 2020 and 2024, reflecting the challenges of the polio endgame strategy.
Declining policy influence of polio models amid rising output cautions against unchecked proliferation; extends research on effective model integration in eradication programs.
Continued investment in the development and application of mathematical models of poliovirus transmission, economics, and risks leads to their use in support of polio endgame strategy development and risk management policies. This study complements an earlier review covering the period 2000-2019 and discusses the evolution of studies published since 2020 by modeling groups supported by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) partners and others. We systematically review modeling papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals from 2020-2024.25 that focus on poliovirus transmission and health economic analyses. In spite of the long-anticipated end of poliovirus transmission and the GPEI sunset, which would lead to the end of its support for modeling, we find that the number of modeling groups supported by GPEI partners doubled and the rate of their publications increased. Modeling continued to play a role in supporting GPEI and national/regional policies, but changes in polio eradication governance, decentralized management and decision-making, and increased heterogeneity in modeling approaches and findings decreased the overall impact of modeling results. Meanwhile, the failure of the 2016 globally coordinated cessation of type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine use for preventive immunization and the introduction of new poliovirus vaccines and formulation, increased the complexity and uncertainty of poliovirus transmission and economic models and policy recommendations during this time.
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Thompson et al. (2024) conducted a systematic review in Poliovirus (n=102). Poliovirus transmission and economic modeling was evaluated on Trends in modeling publications and their impact on polio eradication policies. The number of polio modeling groups doubled and their publication rate increased between 2020 and 2024, although the overall impact of modeling results on policy decisions decreased.
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