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Background: Over the past years, the malaria elimination program has considerably decreased the malaria indigenous cases and confined their incidence to the southeastern areas of Iran encompassing 28 less developed counties with favorable transmission conditions. Objectives: The aim of the study was to investigate the effects of climatic and socioeconomic indicators on malaria transmission and to predict malaria transmission risk until 2025 for all the southeastern endemic counties in Iran. Methods: The aggregated data from indigenous malaria cases, as well as, climatic and socioeconomic indicators of malaria endemic areas were collected on the monthly basis from each county between 2005 and 2015. The collected variables were, then, estimated until 2025 using time series analysis. Considering the nature of these data, two different multilevel models were implemented for vivax and falciparum based on the socioeconomic variable that was used. Finally, applying two different models, two sets of estimates were obtained for malaria transmission risk in each county.
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Sheikhzadeh et al. (2017) studied this question.
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