Why experience fails to foster expertise in athlete selection

Understanding how coaches, scouts, and other decision-makers assess and select athletes has become an increasingly important focus in sport psychology. While athlete selection is often entrusted to “experienced experts,” experience related to a given sport does not necessarily translate into selection expertise. This short communication explains why experience often fails to foster expertise. Drawing on the broader judgment and decision-making literature, particularly Kahneman and Klein (2009), two key conditions are identified for expertise to develop through experience: (1) the availability of high-validity cues, and (2) sufficient learning opportunities, including timely, complete, and unambiguous feedback. We argue that these conditions are rarely present in athlete selection. Studies from the wider personnel selection literature similarly show limited benefits of experience. Although experience is likely not a reliable path to expertise in athlete selection, the application of empirically validated knowledge will improve selection decisions. We discuss how such knowledge can be acquired through systematic research and suggest that practitioners in the field of sports need to prioritize evidence-based approaches over accumulated experience. • Experience does not always result in in judgment expertise • Athlete selection fails to meet conditions for developing expertise via experience • Athlete selection lacks high-validity cues and sufficient feedback • Broader personnel selection research also shows limited value of experience • Empirical knowledge offers a better path to improved selection decisions