Policy Options after the Demographic Transition: The Case of Taiwan

Taiwan is considered to have completed the demographic transition. In 1983 total fertility rate was 2.16 the net reproduction rate was 1 life expectancy was 70 years for men and 75 years for women and 92% of married women 35-39 years of age were current or ever users of contraception. Thus the focus of population policy is likely to shift from fertility and family planning to other issues. Various population projections suggest increases of 6-11 million by the time zero population growth is achieved in 2025-60. Taiwan has demonstrated an ability to absorb population growth; changes in the age distributions of the population are expected to have greater impact than increases in numbers. The young (under 15 years)/old (over 64 years) ratio is expected to change from 8:1 in 1983 to 1:1.4 at zero population growth necessitating a shift in expenditures from education and child welfare to health and welfare for the elderly. Employment policy will need to shift from the creation of new job opportunities for young labor force entrants to the development of employment and retraining programs for older workers and provisions for retirees. Taiwan lacks extensive nonfamilial fiscal and service systems for social security health care and specialized housing and there is potential for rapid erosion of the traditional family system unless government policy is carefully analyzed. There appears to be potential however for developing institutions under modernization that preserve the centrality of familial exchanges. Other policy issues concern urbanization population distribution and migration. The decentralized provision of health cultural and recreational facilities could retard or reverse the urban flow. The status of women in the context of Taiwans changing socioeconomic system is likely to become increasingly a subject of policy discussion. Finally the national family planning program is likely to shift its emphasis to social welfare goals.