The dynamics of energy transition metals under climate policy uncertainty

Climate policy uncertainty has emerged as a key source of systemic risk in global commodity markets, particularly for energy transition metals. The volatile and uneven trajectory of climate policy shaped by shifting political priorities, macro financial shocks and regulatory reversals creates uncertainty for metals markets and long horizon investment. Using monthly data from 1988 to 2024, this study applies a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model with exogenous controls to identify the impact of climate policy uncertainty on energy transition metals while accounting for macroeconomic drivers. The findings show that uncertainty shocks trigger persistent price declines for nickel and more moderate short-lived effects for aluminium and copper. Additional analysis shows that investor sentiment operates as a transmission channel through which the effects of climate policy uncertainty transmits to changes in transition metal prices. A dynamic spillover analysis further shows that climate policy uncertainty usually acts as a net shock receiver but becomes more influential during systemic crises. Time varying Granger causality tests confirm a uni-directional influence of climate policy uncertainty on energy transition metals, especially around major policy events. These findings highlight the evolving role of climate policy uncertainty in shaping the dynamics of transition metal prices and show the need for credible and coordinated policy frameworks to support the energy transition.