Climate change risks to future sustainable fishing using global seafood ecolabel data

Summary Marine fisheries are an important source of food and livelihoods globally. However, climate-induced changes in marine ecosystems are affecting fish populations and sustainable fishing opportunities. By combining datasets on climate-driven changes in population distribution and biomass with Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) seafood ecolabel program data, we conduct a large-scale risk analysis of fisheries under a high-emissions scenario by mid-century. Results show that fisheries targeting tuna and billfish face the highest relative risks of management disruption, due to high exposure to stock shifts and higher governance vulnerabilities, followed by small pelagic and demersal fisheries. We analyze a subset of global fisheries with high management performance (MSC-certified), suggesting risk may be higher among non-MSC-certified fisheries. These findings provide key insights into governance priorities across diverse fisheries under climate change. They underscore the need for international cooperation, regular management reviews, and effective monitoring to be prepared for climate impacts on marine resources.