Minerals’ criticality and countries' mining competitiveness: Two faces of the same coin

This article introduces a novel theoretical and empirical framework for estimating the criticality of key minerals that are intensively used in the energy transition and the mining competitiveness of countries producing them, using economic complexity techniques. The theoretical framework proposes that the most competitive countries are those exporting a broad range of mineral goods, including the most critical ones. Meanwhile, the most critical minerals are the least ubiquitous and are exported by the most competitive countries. The empirical framework relies on an endogenous system of equations in which countries’ mining competitiveness and mineral criticality are simultaneously co-determined. The equation system is solved using the Fitness-Criticality algorithm (FCa), an adaptation of the Economic Fitness-Complexity algorithm. The results show that South Africa, Russia, the United States, and China are the most competitive mining countries. Meanwhile, the platinum group metals, silicon, rare earths, and lithium are the most critical minerals. These results are consistent with other methodologies employed by different experts that separately estimate both dimensions and derive rankings of countries and minerals, but are obtained with a methodology that offers substantial advantages. • This paper proposes a theoretical and empirical framework that relates minerals' criticality and countries' competitiveness and allows to simultaneously estimate both dimensions. • For this purpose, we employ economic complexity techniques to build an unsupervised Fitness-Criticality algorithm, that delivers the Fitness Mining Index and Criticality Minerals Index. • Our indexes are efficient in terms of the set of information employed, and do not rely on subjective perspectives and assessments. • The results of the estimates suggest that South Africa, Russia, the United States, and China are the most competitive mining countries. • The Platinum Group Metals, silicon, rare earths and lithium appear as the most critical minerals.