Why Is Offshore Gas-to-Wire with CCUS Geopolitically and Economically Critical to Decarbonization?

Carbon taxes and credits (CT&C) accelerate global deployment of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies to enable energy transition. This study investigates the economic performance and resilience of floating gas-to-wire with CCUS (f-GTW-CCUS), deployed at the wellhead of stranded CO2-rich offshore oil and gas reservoirs. The f-GTW-CCUS platform integrates a natural gas combined cycle power plant with monoethanolamine post-combustion capture (PCC-MEA), producing low-carbon electricity (23 kgCO2e/MWh, competitive with renewables) while monetizing captured CO2 via enhanced oil recovery (EOR). The mass and energy balance data from the proposed process configuration were obtained in the literature. Critically, f-GTW-CCUS operates on wellhead-sourced in situ-associated gas, eliminating exposure to volatile natural gas markets, and achieves a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of USD 67.15/MWh. Monte Carlo analysis (10,000 Gaussian iterations, 30-year lifetime, 10% discount rate, three CT&C scenarios, namely, low/medium/high) is used to quantify economic feasibility across three stochastic variables: oil, natural gas, and electricity prices, starting in the 5th year. The results demonstrate the following: (1) Case A (f-GTW without CCUS) remains economically infeasible (NPV < 0) under all price volatility scenarios due to insufficient electricity-only revenue and carbon taxation penalties; (2) Case B (f-GTW-CCUS with immediate CCUS deployment) maintains positive NPV across all scenarios, with EOR monetization contributing 43% of total revenue; (3) the critical CCUS deployment-delay threshold is 6 years under high carbon taxation, extending to 10 years when carbon credits are included. Gate-to-gate environmental assessment (carbon intensity, water footprint, land transformation) shows f-GTW-CCUS superiority versus alternative power systems, with minimal water–land nexuses due to offshore desalination. An empirical consistency assessment based on the 2026 geopolitical energy crisis demonstrates the structural resilience of the f-GTW-CCUS plant: the wellhead sourcing provides resilience to global natural gas price shocks, while the concurrent crude price escalation amplifies EOR revenues by 43–57%, improving project feasibility during commodity disruptions. These findings position f-GTW-CCUS as a critical decarbonization pathway for O&G producers exploiting stranded gas reserves. The technology combines carbon intensity reduction with economic resilience under volatile energy market conditions and mandatory climate policies.