Key result
A novel competing-risk nomogram demonstrated good discriminative ability for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year cardiovascular death in patients with colorectal cancer, with a C-index of 0.719.
Why the study?
The authors aimed to investigate mortality patterns, quantitatively assess cardiovascular death risks in colorectal cancer patients, and build a competing-risk model to predict cardiovascular death.
Cohort (n=197,699)
Yes
Effect estimate: C-index 0.719 (95% CI 0.738-0.742)
A competing-risk nomogram was successfully developed and validated to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year cardiovascular death probabilities in patients with colorectal cancer, identifying age, race, marital status, tumor size, stage, surgery, and chemotherapy as independent risk factors.
Nomogram may aid CVD risk stratification in colorectal cancer; leaves open prospective validation before clinical use.
Purpose: We aimed to investigate the mortality patterns and quantitatively assess the risks of cardiovascular death (CVD) in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). We also established a competing-risk model to predict the probability of CVD for patients with CRC. Patients and Methods: Patients with CRC who diagnosed between 2007 and 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were included in the present study. The cumulative incidence function (CIF) was used for CVD and other causes of death, and Gray's test was used to determine the subgroup difference in CIF. The Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazards model was used for identifying independent risk factors for CVD. A novel competing-risk model was established to evaluate the probability of CVD for patients with CRC. The performance of the nomogram was measured by concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and risk stratification. Results: After a median follow-up of 37.00 months, 79,455 deaths occurred, of whom 56,185 (70.71%) succumbed to CRC and 23,270 (29.29%) patients died due to non-CRC, among which CVD accounted for 9,702 (41.69%), being the major cause of non-cancer deaths. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative rates for CVD were 12.20, 24.25, and 30.51%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, age, race, marital status, tumor size, tumor stage, advanced stage, surgery, and chemotherapy were independent risk factors of CVD among patients with CRC. The nomogram was well calibrated and had good discriminative ability, with a c-index of 0.719 (95% CI, 0.738-0.742) in the training cohort and 0.719 (95% CI, 0.622-0.668) in the validation cohort. DCA demonstrated that nomogram produced more benefit within wide ranges of threshold probabilities for 1-, 3-, and 5-year CVD, respectively. Conclusion: This study was the first to analyze the CIF and risk factors for CVD among CRC based on a competing-risk model. We have also built the first 1-, 3-, and 5-year competing nomogram for predicting CVD. This nomogram had excellent performance and could help clinicians to provide individualized management in clinical practice.
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Zhang et al. (2022) conducted a cohort in Colorectal cancer (n=197,699). Colorectal cancer was evaluated on Cardiovascular death prediction (C-index in training cohort) (C-index 0.719, 95% CI 0.738-0.742). A novel competing-risk nomogram demonstrated good discriminative ability for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year cardiovascular death in patients with colorectal cancer, with a C-index of 0.719.
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