Prediction of potential suitable habitat for Monochasma savatieri in China under climate change scenarios

Introduction M. savatieri is a medicinal hemi-parasitic herb with significant therapeutic value and is mainly distributed in southeastern China, yet its development is constrained by limited wild resources under global climate change. Methods Using the MaxEnt model, this study simulated the potential distribution of M. savatieri in China under current and three future climate scenarios (SSP1‑2.6, SSP2−4.5, SSP5−8.5) and identified the key environmental drivers. Results Results show that the current highly suitable habitat (18.56×10 4 km²) is mainly located in Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, and surrounding provinces, which lie within the subtropical monsoon climate zone, primarily shaped by four variables: precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), maximum temperature of the warmest month (bio5), and annual precipitation (bio12), which collectively explain 92.2% of the model. Under all future scenarios, the highly suitable area is projected to decline, contracting notably around central Jiangxi, while the overall distribution centroid remains stable. Discussion These findings provide spatially explicit guidance for the conservation of wild resources and the selection of cultivation areas for M. savatieri under climate change.