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This analysis aims to estimate and predict the prevalence of COVID-19 in South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, and Ghana using statistical models.

COVID-19 prevalence estimation: Four most affected African countries

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This analysis aims to estimate and predict the prevalence of COVID-19 in South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, and Ghana using statistical models.
Applied ARIMA models to forecast COVID-19 prevalence from data dated February 21 to June 16, 2020.
Utilized linear regression and time series statistical tools for forecasting.
Selected ARIMA models based on minimum Akaike information criterion correction.
ARIMA (0,2,3) was best for South Africa, ARIMA (0,1,1) for Nigeria, ARIMA (3,1,0) for Ghana, and ARIMA (0,1,2) for Egypt.
Predictions indicate exponential growth in COVID-19 prevalence across the examined African countries.
Recommendations for government and health authorities to implement necessary precautions and plans.

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ARIMA models forecast COVID-19 prevalence trends in South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, and Ghana, indicating exponential growth.

Lukman et al. (2020) studied this question.

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