Analysis and Forecasting of GDP Using the ARIMA Model

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important indicator to measure the development of the national economy, which is important for promoting economic growth and assisting relevant departments in making economic decisions. In this paper, an ARIMA time series model is used to model China's GDP from 1978 to 2022 for empirical analysis. The results show that the predicted GDP values are in good agreement with the actual values, i.e. the ARIMA (0, 2, 0) model has high prediction accuracy. Based on the established ARIMA (0, 2, 0) model, China's GDP is predicted in order from 2023 to 2027. From the prediction results, it can be seen that China's GDP will still maintain steady growth. In order to promote China's economic growth, the following suggestions are made: (1) attract high-tech talents and complex talents; (2) optimise and upgrade the industrial structure; (3) adhere to the innovation drive; (4) strengthen the deepening of foreign economic cooperation.