Predicted and observed mortality in adult cardiac surgery in the King Abdulaziz Cardiac Center: application of EuroSCORE I and EuroSCORE II

This paper was designed to review the risk for and the actual mortality rate of patients subjected to cardiac surgery at the King Abdulaziz Cardiac Center (KACC). The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE I and EuroSCORE II) was used to assess the expected and observed operative risk of all (1176) patients undergoing cardiac surgery at the KACC from 2010 to 2012. The overall predicted mortality was 4.48% (SD 5.29) while the observed mortality was 1.27% (>30 days 0.42% and <30 days 0.85%). For all coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), the EuroSCORE I over estimated mortality (3.8% predicted vs. 0.97% observed). The same was found to be true for isolated CABG (3.8% predicted vs. 0.38% observed) and for CABG plus valve cases (predicted 8.34% vs. 3.4% observed) or isolated valvular surgery (5% predicted vs. 2.9% observed). EuroSCORE II also showed the same trend as EuroSCORE I in a smaller group of patients of 411 (3.08% predicted vs. 0.731% observed mortality). EuroSCORE I and EuroSCORE II overestimated the predicted mortality in our cardiac surgery patients.