Rural-Urban Migration in China, 1950–1982: Estimates and Analysis

The objectives of this study are to construct a series of annual net rural-urban migration estimates for post-1949 China and to examine the temporal patterns of rural-urban migration and urbanization and their relationship with economic growth. The paper begins with a review of the problems in previous estimations of China's net rural-urban migration. By tackling the various problems identified, a set of reasonably accurate migration estimates is presented. The trends and special features of rural-urban migration in post-1949 China are then examined. It is shown that the volume of net rural-urban migration since 1949, accounting for about half the urban population increase, is by no means small and is certainly more than was previously realized. The tremendous variation in migration rates reflects the heavy interventionist role of the government in this area. The periods of high net migration generally coincide with the periods of better economic performance. It is argued that the temporal patterns of migration and urbanization have been shaped mainly by the economic development strategy pursued by China. Finally, the current trend of rural-urban migration is examined.