World food prices and poverty incidence in a food exporting country: a multihousehold general equilibrium analysis for Thailand

Abstract A multisectoral, multihousehold general equilibrium model of the Thai economy is used to analyze the implications of recent increases in international food prices. Higher food prices, especially staple grains, worsen poverty incidence in Thailand despite the presence of large numbers of poor farmers, many of whom benefit from higher prices. The positive effect on the welfare of poor farmers is dominated by the negative effect on poor consumers. Of the recent price increases for rice, sugar, cassava, maize, soybeans, urea, and petroleum, the increases in rice prices raise poverty incidence the most, despite Thailand being the world's largest rice exporter.