This paper shows that, in practice, the standard approach to scenario planning, known as ‘intuitive logics’, is overly focused on uncovering causes of one type, known as ‘efficient cause’. We outline and apply a broader consideration of causes, leading to a more sophisticated analysis of uncertainty. Our focus is on the incorporation of Aristotle’s nuanced analysis of causation. We incorporate the features of our augmented scenario development approach in a practical step-by-step methodology, and draw out several implications for expert knowledge elicitation.
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Derbyshire et al. (2016) studied this question.