Level and change of attitudes toward refugees in Germany

Attitudes toward refugees (ATR) have become a pivotal concern in Germany following the substantial refugee influx of 2015. This study examines levels and changes in ATR in the German population between 2017 and 2021 across different sociodemographic groups. In contrast to previous studies investigating similar research questions, our approach captured within-individual changes across three dimensions of ATR—cognitive, affective, and behavioral—a perspective largely missing in existing research. Using the GESIS Panel and latent growth curve modeling, we found that after an initial increase in negative sentiments, attitudes gradually became more positive over time, with the strongest positive shift observed in the cognitive dimension, followed by the affective and behavioral dimensions. Women, West Germans, higher-educated, and politically left-leaning individuals held more positive ATR across all ATR dimensions. These sociodemographic differences remained largely stable without attenuating or intensifying over the 4 years. The uniform change patterns in ATR challenge assumptions that certain groups are more resistant to attitude change or that attitudes have polarized in Germany's post-2015 environment.