Synapse
⌘+K
Synapse
PulseExploreClubsResearchersJournals
Instagram
HomeClubsExplore
September 19, 2022Open Access

Machine learning models, such as XGBoost, demonstrated mediocre performance in predicting 365-day hospital readmission (AUC=0.649) and worsening heart failure events (AUC=0.640) in HFrEF patients.

View Full Paper
Ask AI
Bookmark
Share

Why the study?

Patients with HFrEF face high risks of adverse outcomes and worsening HF after hospitalization, making it crucial to compare different machine learning prediction models and feature construction methods for predicting readmissions and worsening HF events.

Do machine learning algorithms accurately predict hospital readmissions and worsening heart failure events in patients with HFrEF?

Population

30,687 adult patients with HFrEF and HF-related hospitalization

Comparison

Different ML prediction models and feature construction methods

Design

Retrospective registry-linked modeling study

Follow-up

1 year

Key result

Machine learning models, such as XGBoost, demonstrated mediocre performance in predicting 365-day hospital readmission (AUC=0.649) and worsening heart failure events (AUC=0.640) in HFrEF patients.

Authors

BRBoshu RuXTXi TanYLYu Liu

Discussion

Loading...

Member takes

Overview

ML models lack accuracy for HFrEF readmission prediction; leaves open whether refined features or algorithms improve performance.

Study Design

Type

Observational (n=30,687)

Multicenter

Yes

Structured PICO

Do machine learning algorithms accurately predict hospital readmissions and worsening heart failure events in patients with HFrEF?

P
Population
30,687 adult patients with HFrEF and a recent HF-related hospitalization, evaluated for hospital readmissions and worsening heart failure events over 1 year.
E
Exposure
Machine learning prediction models (multilayer perceptron neural network, XGBoost, random forest, logistic regression) using various feature construction methods (CCS frequencies, BERT+CCS, BERT+raw, prespecified features).
C
Comparator
Comparison between different machine learning algorithms and feature construction methods.
O
Outcome
30-, 90-, and 365-day hospital readmissions and worsening heart failure events (WHFEs, defined as HF-related hospitalizations or outpatient intravenous diuretic use within 1 year of the first HF hospitalization).composite

Main Result

Effect estimate: AUC 0.649

Machine learning models using administrative and clinical codes showed mediocre discriminative ability (AUC 0.595-0.649) for predicting readmissions and worsening heart failure in HFrEF patients.

Limitations

  • Imbalance between positive and negative cases
  • High missing rates of many clinical variables and outcome definitions
  • imbalance between positive and negative cases
  • high missing rates of many clinical variables and outcome definitions

Cite This Study

Ru et al. (2022) conducted an observational in Heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) (n=30,687). Machine learning prediction models was evaluated on 30-, 90-, and 365-day hospital readmissions and worsening HF events (WHFEs) (AUC 0.649). Machine learning models, such as XGBoost, demonstrated mediocre performance in predicting 365-day hospital readmission (AUC=0.649) and worsening heart failure events (AUC=0.640) in HFrEF patients.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a203ac40a9d8fc05fd8e604https://doi.org/10.2196/preprints.41775
View Full Paper
Ask AI
Bookmark
Share