Roadmap for Korea’s Tobacco Tax Increase: Long-Term International Cases and Policy Proposals

Background: Tobacco tax increases are recognized by the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) as the most effective single measure for tobacco control, reducing smoking prevalence, promoting cessation, and generating revenue.Korea, tax increases have been largely ad hoc, limiting their long-term effectiveness.This study analyzes international experiences of tobacco tax increases to design a long-term, predictable roadmap tailored to Korea's socioeconomic context and smoking patterns.Methods: Policy documents, statistical data, and literature from Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Finland, and Ireland were reviewed, focusing on target years, annual tax rates, taxation structures, and revenue use.Korea's current tobacco tax system was assessed to propose a sustainable roadmap, which was validated through expert discussions at the 2024 Spring Conference of the Korean Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco.Results: International cases featured (1) clear target years; (2) annual increases above inflation and income growth; (3) integrated taxation across nicotine products; (4) transparent reinvestment of revenues.The proposed Korean model emphasizes a multiyear plan associated with inflation and legally earmarks a fixed proportion of tax revenues for health promotion programs. Conclusion:This study established a concrete roadmap to transition Korea's tobacco tax policy from short-term measures to a long-term strategy, aiming to reduce smoking prevalence and improve fiscal sustainability.Future research should apply quantitative modeling to effectively predict policy impacts and address potential unintended consequences.