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Summary 1. The Yangtze floodplain (SE China) is characterized by a number of large shallow lakes, many of which have undergone eutrophication due to the intensification of agriculture and urban growth over recent decades. As monitoring data are limited and in order to determine lake baseline nutrient concentrations, 49 lakes were sampled, covering a total phosphorus (TP) gradient ( c. 30–550 μg L −1 ) to develop a diatom‐based inference model. 2. There are three dominant diatom assemblages in these shallow lakes with a marked change in assemblage structure near the boundary between eutrophic and hypereutrophic nutrient levels (as indicated by their TP value). Canonical correspondence analysis indicated that TP was the most important and significant variable in explaining the diatom distributions, independently accounting for 9.5% variance of diatoms. 3. Forty‐three lakes were used to generate a transfer function using weighted averaging (WA) with inverse deshrinking. This model had low predictive error (root mean squared error of prediction; RMSEP jack = 0.12) and a high coefficient of prediction ( R 2 jack = 0.82), comparable with regional TP models elsewhere. The good performance of this TP model may reflect the low abundance of benthic diatom species which are commonly regarded as the main error source in European shallow lake WA models. 4. The WA model was used to reconstruct the past‐TP concentrations for Taibai Lake, a shallow hypereutrophic lake in Hubei province. The results showed that TP concentration varied slightly (43–62 μg L −1 ) prior to the 1920s, indicating an eutrophic state since the 1800s. A period of sustained eutrophication occurred after 1950, because of the development of agriculture, reflecting by maximum values of Aulacoseira alpigena and increased abundance of Cyclotella meneghiniana , C. atomus and Cyclostephanos dubius . The steep increase in nutrient concentration after 1970 was related to the overuse of chemical fertilizer and fish farming in the catchment. 5. The shift in fossil diatoms from epiphytic to planktonic forms in the lake sediment core during 1950–70 provides useful information on the transformation from macrophyte‐dominated to alga‐dominated states. It is plausible that the TP concentration of 80–110 μg L −1 observed in this study is the critical range for switching between the two stable states in the lake. 6. The regional diatom‐TP model developed in this study allows, therefore, the possibility of reconstructing historical background nutrient concentrations in lakes. It will provide an indication of the onset and development of eutrophication at any site. This is particularly important for the many lakes in the Yangtze floodplain where information about historical changes in water quality is lacking.
Yang et al. (Wed,) studied this question.