Development of a nomogram for screening the risk of left ventricular hypertrophy in Chinese hypertensive patients

Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is an important risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in hypertensives. Therefore, early identification of at-risk patients is necessary. The objective of this study was to estimate the risk of LVH among Chinese hypertensives by designing a nomogram. 832 hypertensives were divided into two groups based on the presence of LVH. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariable logistic regression were successively applied for optimal variable selection and nomogram construction. Discrimination power, calibration, and clinical usefulness were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. Internal validation was performed using the bootstrap method. The nomogram included five predictors, namely gender, duration of hypertension, age, body mass index (BMI), and systolic blood pressure. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.724 (95% CI: 0.687-0.761), indicating moderate discrimination. The calibration curve showed an excellent agreement between the predicted LVH and the actual LVH probability. The risk threshold between 5% and 72% according to the decision curve analysis, and the nomogram is clinically beneficial. Internal validation by bootstrapping with 1000 samples showed a good C-index of 0.715, which suggested that the predictive abilities for the training set and testing set were in consistency. Our study proposed a nomogram that can be utilized to assess the LVH risk rapidly for Chinese hypertensives. This tool could be useful in identifying patients at high risk for LVH. Further studies are required to ascertain the stability and applicability of this nomogram.