Algorithmic realization of short-term solar power plant output forecasting

The rapid growth of solar power plants, integrated into United Power System of Russia (UPS), keeps stable over the last several years. The high percentage of solar power plants in the power system inevitably leads to significant increase of power generation output uncertainty, affecting the high-voltage power network. The reserve capacities, which are allocated on conventional power plants to cover the active power imbalance, should be as less as possible to improve economic efficiency of solar power plants implementation. For this reason, solar power plant operation forecasting becomes an urgent issue in power system and electric energy markets operation. The authors present the structure and mathematical description of the model of solar power plant operation short-term forecasting, which will give the possibility to assess the mean hourly value of solar power plant generation capacity. All the calculations are made for real solar power plant.