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Mathematical and computational studies of Covid-19 have underestimated the influence that other countries have on their daily records. To visualize this, a Granger causality analysis was implemented in Python to determine if the cases registered in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and the USA have any effect on Venezuela, and between all of them. Finally, this paper highlights the need to incorporate causality analysis employing only the cases of Covid-19 to improve mid and long term forecasts.
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Raúl Isea (2021) studied this question.
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