Piagetian and Information Processing Approaches to Concepts of Chance and Probability: Relationships among Methods, Age, and Locus of Control

Summary The main purpose of this study was to investigate among first-, fourth-, and seventh-grade children (N = 60) their comprehension of uncertainty as assessed by a stage-based Piagetian technique for understanding chance and an information processing approach for understanding probability. An auxiliary purpose was to determine whether individual differences in comprehending uncertainty were related to locus of control. Reasonably strong correlations were found between stage-based items on the chance task and the use of particular strategies on the probability task in 7-, 10-, and 13-year-old children. The data also confirmed age related differences noted by other investigators for both tasks. The locus of control variable had only minor influence. There was a tendency for internal more than for external seven-year-olds to persist with their choice of strategies. Discussion focused on the age trends and ties between different approaches for understanding the development of chance and probability concepts.