Prediction of Long-term Monthly Temperature and Rainfall in Turkey

Abstract In this study, artificial neural networks were applied to predict the long-term monthly temperature and rainfall at any target point of Turkey based on the use of the neighboring measuring stations data. For this purpose, meteorological data measured by the Turkish State Meteorological Service between the years 1975 and 2006 from 76 measuring stations were used as training (59 stations) and testing (17 stations) data. Four neurons which receive input signals of latitude, longitude, altitude, and month were used in the input layer of the network. Two neurons, which produce corresponding output signals of the long-term monthly temperature and rainfall, were utilized in the output layer of the network. Finally, the values determined by the artificial neural network model were compared with the actual data. Errors obtained in this model are well within acceptable limits.