Prediction of Mild Cognitive Impairment Status: Pilot Study of Machine Learning Models Based on Longitudinal Data From Fitness Trackers (Preprint)

BACKGROUND Early signs of Alzheimer disease (AD) are difficult to detect, causing diagnoses to be significantly delayed to time points when brain damage has already occurred and current experimental treatments have little effect on slowing disease progression. Tracking cognitive decline at early stages is critical for patients to make lifestyle changes and consider new and experimental therapies. Frequently studied biomarkers are invasive and costly and are limited for predicting conversion from normal to mild cognitive impairment (MCI). OBJECTIVE This study aimed to use data collected from fitness trackers to predict MCI status. METHODS In this pilot study, fitness trackers were worn by 20 participants: 12 patients with MCI and 8 age-matched controls. We collected physical activity, heart rate, and sleep data from each participant for up to 1 month and further developed a machine learning model to predict MCI status. RESULTS Our machine learning model was able to perfectly separate between MCI and controls (area under the curve=1.0). The top predictive features from the model included peak, cardio, and fat burn heart rate zones; resting heart rate; average deep sleep time; and total light activity time. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that a longitudinal digital biomarker differentiates between controls and patients with MCI in a very cost-effective and noninvasive way and hence may be very useful for identifying patients with very early AD who can benefit from clinical trials and new, disease-modifying therapies.