Balancing Growth and Ecological Sustainability: The Role of Carbon Productivity and Human Development in Achieving the SDGs

ABSTRACT This study evaluates how economic and human capital factors influence ecological outcomes in the Next‐11 economies (Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, and Vietnam) over the period 1990–2023. The primary objective is to examine the differential impacts of carbon productivity and healthy life expectancy on ecological footprint, while accounting for socio‐institutional determinants such as income, education, governance, and energy transition. A Panel Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PQARDL) framework is employed to capture both short‐run dynamics and long‐run equilibrium relationships across the ecological footprint distribution. Results indicate that higher carbon productivity significantly reduces ecological footprints, supporting SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 13 (Climate Action). In contrast, rising income and education, while enhancing human development, can increase environmental pressures, highlighting the need for sustainable growth strategies. Aging and healthy life expectancy show quantile‐dependent effects, particularly in high‐footprint economies, linking SDG 3 (Good Health and Well‐being) to ecological performance. Dominance analysis identifies wealth and education as the main drivers of ecological impact, while the significant error correction term confirms long‐term stability. The findings underscore the importance of integrated policy approaches that enhance carbon productivity through technological innovation and renewable energy adoption, advancing green growth in alignment with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.