How Chinese Farmers Change Crop Choice to Adapt to Climate Change

A multinomial logit model is estimated across the crop choices of a sample of thousands of Chinese farmers. As temperatures warm, farmers are more likely to choose cotton and maize, but less likely to choose soybeans, and vegetables. As precipitation increases, farmers are more likely to choose wheat and less likely to choose vegetables and potatoes. We simulate how crop choice outcomes might change using the empirical results and a set of climate change predictions for 2100. The magnitude of the change is sensitive to the climate scenario and to the seasonal and regional variation of climate change predictions within China.