Democratisation in Africa: Obstacles and prospects

The events of the last few years have given a substantial boost to the process of democratisation in Africa, and have opened up at least the prospect of reshaping the African political order into forms which would be startlingly at variance with those through which most of the continent has been governed during the three decades or so since independence. The changes currently under way are moreover, at least in my view, much more than the simple backwash into Africa of events in Eastern Europe and the former USSR. Even though the timing of events in Africa has been affected by the upheavals in Europe, and though the African scene is inevitably influenced by the transformation of the international order, the democratisation process reflects a crisis in the African state itself which was in any event becoming clear. Whether this process is likely to lead to the creation of a reasonably stable democratic order is, however, quite another matter, about which I remain extremely sceptical. This article therefore seeks to place the recent democratic upsurge in Africa in the context of the continent's recent history and continuing problems, in the hope of illuminating both the background to democratisation and the continuing obstacles which it has to face.