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We present a mean-field theory for the evolution of RNA virus populations. The theory operates with a distribution of the population in a one-dimensional fitness space, and is valid for sufficiently smooth fitness landscapes. Our approach explains naturally the recent experimental observation I. S. Novella et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 92, 5841--5844 (1995) of two distinct stages in the growth of virus fitness.
Tsimring et al. (Mon,) studied this question.