The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Urban Green Total Factor Productivity—Evidence from Chinese Cities

Green total factor productivity (GTFP) plays an important role in urban sustainability. In the context of rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI), this study examines whether and how the accumulation of AI technologies affects urban GTFP. We construct a city-level AI development index based on patent data. Using panel data on 120 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2023, we employ two-way fixed-effects models, instrumental-variables estimation, and multiple robustness checks to identify the impact of AI on urban GTFP. The results show that AI significantly improves urban GTFP. A one-standard-deviation increase in AI development is associated with an increase of approximately 0.75 in GTFP, which represents a substantial improvement within the distribution of GTFP. Mechanism analysis indicates that this effect operates primarily through green innovation and industrial upgrading. The positive impact is more pronounced in cities with stronger economic and institutional foundations.